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    发布时间:2026-08-27  

    甲方乙方

    With Trump a No-Show at Debate, GOP Wannabes Can Attack, Defend or Ignore_我的网站

    钢铁侠3

    A |     

    5月7日,普京在克里姆林宫举行俄罗斯第八届总统就职仪式,正式开启普京“5.0”时代。    
    GOP front-runner and four times-indicted Donald Trump will not be physically present at Wednesday evening's first 2024 presidential primary debate. But he'll be there anyway as the troubled candidate remains the dominant figure – and issue – of the nominating contest.
    Typically, early debates are a chance for poll-laggers to make an impression, either by delivering a well-placed zinger at a top-tier candidate or shining with a smart response to a question. The front-runners tend to have targets on their backs, which could result in a weakened position or a stronger one, if they handle attacks from primary rivals well.
    But in the case of the debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday, the participants are in an awkward, perhaps no-win situation: The front-runner won't even be there, and the rest of the field can't attack him without alienating the very voters they'd need to sew up the nomination, should the legally imperiled Trump be forced to suspend his campaign.
    Trump is "going to be the huge, spray-tanned elephant in the room. He's going to be what everybody is thinking about, even though he's not there," says Dave Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
    That means the eight candidates who have qualified for the debate – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – have few choices, and none is terribly appealing.
    They can attack Trump, defend him or try to ignore him – which debate moderators are not likely to let pass, Cohen says. None of those approaches helps a candidate emerge as a better choice than Trump without angering Trump's rank-and-file loyalists.
    "They're in a difficult spot, strategically," says Stephen Smith, professor at the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. But "it's one they've earned," he adds.
    Only a few have been willing to criticize Trump directly, and it's not appeared to have endeared them to GOP primary voters.
    Christie – who worked on Trump's transition team before turning on him – has been the most aggressive in his attacks on Trump, saying the former president lacks the "character" to serve in the Oval Office and needling Trump for skipping the debate, which Christie last week called "completely disrespectful" to GOP voters.
    The tactic – essentially making himself the marquee foil of Trump – is based on the gamble that if Trump ends up leaving the race, Christie will emerge as the most prominent truth-teller and default new front-runner.
    It's not going so well, so far: National polls have Christie in the low single digits. A recent Des Moines Register/NBC poll in Iowa puts Christie in sixth place with 5% support among GOP caucus-goers.
    Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – who arguably on paper has the most complete and traditional resume for a Republican presidential contender – is also polling in the low single digits, his criticism of Trump not moving the needle at all.
    Former Vice President Mike Pence has stepped up his criticism of Trump's behavior – saying the former president asked him to put him above the Constitution by asking him to refuse to certify the 2020 election results – but hasn't made it as personal.
    Pence recently said he was not aware of any "broad-based effort" to declassify records before Trump left office, undercutting the former president's claim that the classified documents he is accused of taking and improperly keeping at his Mar-a-Lago resort were, in fact, declassified. But Pence has also been reluctant to say Trump should be treated like any other politician who has been convicted of a felony – meaning, ousted from office.
    "I think that needs to be left to the American people. Look, let’s let the former president have his day in court. Let’s maintain a presumption of innocence in this matter," Pence told ABC on Sunday.
    Former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley – the only woman who will be onstage Wednesday night – has cautioned that Trump's legal troubles could cost Republicans the general election. She hasn't directly criticized the former president but didn't shy away earlier this month by reminding people of how much worse Trump's situation is getting.
    "Like most Americans, I’m tired of commenting on every Trump drama. I’ve lost track of whether this indictment is the third or fourth or the fifth," Haley said during an appearance on “Good Morning New Hampshire” radio show with Jack Heath – before the fourth indictment out of Georgia’s Fulton County.
    Others have responded to questions about Trump with attacks on the criminal justice system and its prosecutors themselves.
    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running a distant second to Trump in most polls, decried the "weaponization of government" after Trump's third indictment – though he conceded he had not actually read the document. DeSantis also acknowledged recently that the 2020 election was not stolen, telling NBC "of course he lost" when asked about Trump's discredited claims of a fraudulent 2020 contest – a comment not likely to endear him to Trump's most devoted supporters.
    Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina called the recent indictment of Trump "un-American and unacceptable. We need a better system than that."
    Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has edged upward in a couple of state polls, has walked a similar line.
    "These are politicized persecutions through prosecution,” he said at a town hall meeting last week. “It would be a lot easier for me if Donald Trump were not in this primary, but that is not how I want to win this election," he added.
    And North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is just deflecting the matter entirely.
    "I do trust the voters. ... They want presidential elections to be about the future, a vision for the future," Burgum told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday after being asked about Trump's troubles.
    In reality, it is the candidates not named Trump who will have the most to prove or explain Wednesday night, analysts say. DeSantis, whose campaign has been flailing, might need to explain why he suggested some Republicans backing Trump are "listless vessels" – a cringe-worthy similar remark to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reference to the "basket of deplorables" in Trump's base.
    As the front-runner among the also-rans, DeSantis will likely take the heaviest rhetorical artillery from the GOP field at the debate. Most of the rest will be struggling to get out of single digits – with the possible exception of Burgum, who is still trying to get the American public to recognize his name.
    Trump, meanwhile, said he plans to counter-program with the airing of a taped one-on-one interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Thursday – a day when the political news would typically be dominated by post-debate analysis – Trump will be the star player in an unprecedented legal and political drama, turning himself in for processing at a Fulton County jail.
    "He's cutting right into the shadow of the debate" with that timing, Smith says. As he undoubtedly will during the debate itself.
    。
    一周后的今天,中俄同时宣布,普京将于5月16日至17日对中国进行国事访问。
    5月14日,普京的总统座驾已经提前运抵哈尔滨太平机场,预计普京将参加中俄博览会与中俄合作论坛开幕式。
    大国的外交首访,是一个非常重要的外交信号,是一个国家和领导集团向国际和国内各股政治力量,展示自己本届任期的首要外交目标。
    按照惯例,为了外交上的平衡与缓冲空间,大国往往不会明确态度,而是选择周围关系密切的小国。

    B |

    譬如美国总统最常选择的是墨西哥与加拿大,俄罗斯青睐于原独联体国家,我们最近两次都给了东盟。

    C |

    而一旦将“首次”献给了另一个大国,则是向全球明确表态,将明确站队,并对外交策略进行颠覆性的调整。

    D |

    我们可以从中国历史上的四次首访,感受这种调整对世界政治格局带来的颠覆性巨变:
    49年建国后,毛主席第一时间访问苏联,随后两国签署盟约,中国全面倒向社会主义阵营。

    E |

    78年十一届三中全会后,小平同志第一时间出访美国,随后中美两国签署一系列的合作协议,中美进入蜜月期。
    97年十五大召开后,江总书记第一时间访问美国,随后发表《中美联合声明》,两国迅速再次破冰,中国加速进入WTO融入全球化。

    F |

    13年全国两会召开后,国家主席第一时间访问俄罗斯,签署了一系列的协议,推动中俄全面战略协议伙伴关系发展。
    可以说,每一次中国公开亮明身份,都标志着全球秩序的大洗牌。
    同样,对于另一个超级大国也是如此,普京一旦调整了首访,也象征着俄罗斯外交思路的转变,全球的地缘政治格局也将随之影响。
    2018的普京4.0时代,他上任后打破出访破例,将首访设定为西方阵营的奥地利,目的是趁着中美贸易战和好基友特朗普上台,向世界展现本届俄罗斯政府欲重新融入欧洲。
    进入5.0时代,普京又一次打破自俄国成立以来的惯例,将首访设定为同为安理会五常的中国,也是在向全球宣布自己接下来6年任期的外交重心就是神秘的东方。
    值得关注的是,今年我们跟普京已经敲定的会面有很多,近的有6月阿斯塔纳的上合峰会,远的有10月喀山的金砖峰会。
    如此奋力,也许是因为下个月,俄乌的外交谈判就要进入赛点,留给普京与泽连斯基的时间不多了。
    6月中旬,全球100多个国家元首将齐聚瑞士,召开和平大会,7月-8月,将在巴黎召开奥运会,除俄罗斯和叙利亚外,118个国家签署了奥运停战协议。

    G |

    值此关键时刻,俄罗斯不仅要在军事战场上大秀武力,也需要在外交战场上获得强力盟友的支持。
    据悉,花费了颇多心思的普京赴京时将会携带很多礼物,其中有一本尼古拉·车尔尼雪夫斯基的《怎么办》。
    小说描绘一位少女爱上了丈夫的好友,最终在丈夫远遁美国的成全下,少女跟丈夫的好友喜结连理。
    该书出版于建国后的第四年,入馆登记日期为下个月的15号。

    H |

    。

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